West Ham v Leicester City is probably bigger than we would ever have imagined in 2020…
Tactical pattern
This one is essentially a showdown for a place in the top four; if West Ham are to qualify for the Champions League they will most likely have to usurp the other underdog, Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester City. It will be a tight and nervy game, with neither team pressing particularly high or committing bodies forward, and certainly nothing like West Ham’s 3-0 win in the reverse fixture.
Leicester’s new formation means they are far more settled than in the October defeat. Rodgers’ 3-4-1-2 may be the right system – direct, with split strikers – to stretch the West Ham back line out of shape, although David Moyes’s 4-2-3-1 is equally settled and airtight. With so much on the line and so few obvious structural flaws, this is a contest of individual battles all over the pitch.
Back under 2.5 goals at 4/5 (Betfair)
Key battle zone
Central midfield is the crucial zone for both teams. Leicester’s Wilfried Ndidi will be tasked with stopping the on-fire Jesse Lingard, whose powerful runs into the number ten space have been driving West Ham forward since his January arrival. Their head-to-head promises to be the most important of the game: if Ndidi wins it, Leicester can dominate possession and ultimately collect the three points.
Youri Tielemans has an increasingly important role to play in cutting quick, tempo-shifting vertical passes through the lines towards Leicester’s split strikers, which piles pressure on Tomas Soucek to have another powerful performance at the base of the West Ham midfield. Soucek’s ability to sweep up loose balls and block the channels will define Tielemans’ game. The midfield battle is vital, then, and we haven’t even talked about James Maddison or Declan Rice yet…
Keep an eye on… Antonio-less West Ham counters
Michail Antonio went off with a hamstring injury in the 3-2 victory over Wolves, which is a huge loss for Moyes. Antonio’s ability to both hold up the ball in the centre of the pitch and make powerful runs into the channels is vital in getting West Ham up the pitch; without him, Moyes’s entire low block, counter-attacking approach could fall apart.
Jarrod Bowen will probably start in Antonio’s place, and unless the 24-year-old has a particularly good game then West Ham might find themselves stuck in their own half, unable to get out. Lingard’s dribbling through the lines is more important than ever.
One to watch… James Maddison
Leicester’s number ten returned for a 20-minute cameo in the 2-0 defeat to Manchester City and is in line to start this first league game since February – which is rotten luck for West Ham after they lost Declan Rice to injury last week. Without Rice mopping up and man-marking Maddison, Leicester’s playmaker could make the telling difference.
Maddison’s return also asks an interesting question of Rodgers. Does he stick with the 3-4-1-2, a successful formation but one introduced in order to cope without Maddison, or does he move back to a 4-2-3-1 that puts his number ten centre stage? Either way, his return and Rice’s absence is final confirmation that Leicester should be considered favourites for this one.
Back Leicester to win at 7/5 (Paddy Power)
Odds correct at the time of publication. 18+ Please Gamble Responsibly. Visit begambleaware.org
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