Manchester City will be looking to keep their Treble dreams alive when they take on Tottenham in this weekend’s EFL Cup Final. But could their ambitions be scuppered by caretaker Spurs boss Ryan Mason? The managerial newbie could do something that Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho both failed to do in seven years at Spurs: win a trophy.
Kevin Hatchard, Mark O’Haire and Jason Murphy previewed the big game on the latest edition of Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast.
Mark began by looking back at City’s FA Cup exit last weekend: “I don’t have any complaints about the Man City price at all. We were talking last week and City were 1.8 at Wembley against Chelsea in the FA Cup.
“We felt they were a little bit short on that occasion. That price did push out to around 1.9 before kick-off, partly down to Man City making so many changes and fielding their second-choice goalkeeper as well.
“Chelsea should have been shorter but I think Spurs are probably around the right price seven days later.
“Again, we’ve got a neutral venue. We know Kevin De Bruyne probably won’t play. We know that Zack Steffen might play in goal. I don’t think that’s a massive negative as it’s been built up. I know he made a mistake last week but we’ve seen him play in the Bundesliga pretty well.
“Obviously the post-match reaction to that defeat to Chelsea was, I felt, a little bit over the top. Reality is, it could have gone either way. It could have gone to extra-time and City could have pinched it. The narrative could have been totally different.
“The big debate about City being tired – they might well be tired. But almost all teams at the top level will be tired because they’ve played so much football in such little time.
“I think I said a few weeks ago, City could be opposed at certain points. I don’t think that’s the case on Sunday, I think they’re a decent price. I think they’re absolutely a fair price to win this match.
“I think the game against Villa was a bit of a sharpener for them as well. I know John Stones will now be missing, but to lose a goal so early and to comeback in the manner that they did and grind out the three points will be key.
“We know in Pep’s mind, he’s so focused on silverware and trophies. I do expect a reaction and a stronger performance.
“It’s still hard to know what we’re going to get from Spurs with Ryan Mason in charge.
“We do expect them to be a bit more adventurous and a bit more attack-minded in the Premier League, but I’m not sure he wants to go toe-to-toe with City in terms of trying to out-gun City, especially if Harry Kane is missing.
“Forty-two of their 54 league goals have been scored or assisted by Kane or Son. Kane himself has had 25 direct goal involvements in 30 Premier League games. His expected goals and expected assists combined per match is 0.81. That’s seriously strong for any player really.
“That game against Southampton was only their fourth win in 12 in the Premier League since the start of last season without him [Kane]. They score 38% fewer goals in his absence as well.
“He’s a key absentee if he is missing. I know Mason didn’t give too much away in the press but I think it’s unlikely he will be a 100% for this match.
“I think that definitely does tip the balance in City’s favour regardless of De Bruyne.”
You can hear more tips and more insight from Kevin, Mark and Jason on the latest edition of Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast.
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