Every week we preview three fascinating things to look out for in the big Premier League games. This time, we look ahead to two huge Prem games and one in the FA Cup too. All in association with Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast.
Six-pointer badly timed for Steve Bruce
Steve Bruce continues to complain he is hard done by, and that everyone is failing to recognise his shift towards a more attacking strategy, but these are empty words. Clearly Newcastle United have moved backwards under his management, and while he may indeed have moved the team further up the pitch it hasn’t made them any better. Newcastle are without a win in five. Several players are reportedly unhappy. The club are sleepwalking towards relegation.
Bruce is unlucky, however, to be facing Brighton in a crucial six-pointer right after their morale-boosting 2-1 win at Southampton. Remarkably, it was only their second win against bottom-half opposition since beating Newcastle 3-0 back in September; Graham Potter’s side are famously wasteful in front of goal, generally only winning games when forced onto the back foot and stealing points on the counter.
The win at Southampton actually followed that pattern, with Brighton holding just 40% possession and recoding eight shots on goal – well below their season average of 11.92. Newcastle’s newfound desire to play on the front foot helps Brighton, then, who on sheer momentum alone should be considered favourites for this one.
After Fulham play Leeds United on Friday night, there is every chance Newcastle will be in the bottom three by the end of the weekend.
From Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast: “Brighton have won just once at home all season so they are too short, even against Newcastle who are lacking in both boxes. I don’t see this being a thriller.”
Leicester well-placed to end seven-year wait for a win
A Leicester City victory on Sunday would mean more than just a place in the last four of the FA Cup. Brendan Rodgers’ team sit just a point behind Manchester United in the Premier League but haven’t beaten them since that epic 5-3 against Louis van Gaal’s side in 2014. If they can overcome this hurdle, victory would be an intriguing symbolic moment in their burgeoning rivalry with Man Utd – and might just heal the wounds of their final-day defeat in 2019/20.
Ever since that eight-goal thriller on a sunny September afternoon seven years ago – Angel Di Maria’s incredible chip, Leicester’s comeback from 3-1 down – this fixture has caught the eye. In 2015 Jamie Vardy set a new Premier League record of scoring in 11 consecutive games in a 1-1 draw with Man Utd. The following May, Wes Morgan’s equaliser in another 1-1 essentially wrapped up the title, 24 hours before Eden Hazard’s goal against Tottenham Hotspur made it official. But last July’s 2-0 defeat on the last day of the season tops them all, although Sunday’s game could end up being just as important.
Leicester are well placed to win the tie. Injuries to James Maddison and Harvey Barnes have forced Brendan Rodgers into a tactical switch, and so far his 3-4-1-2 formation is working well, with Jamie Vardy twice assisting Kelechi Iheanacho in the 5-0 defeat of Sheffield United last weekend. When you consider Bruno Fernandes’s form has slightly dipped as he comes up against the imperious Wilfried Ndidi, Rodgers has every right to feel confident of progression.
Back Leicester to qualify at 11/10
From Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast: “Leicester look really threatening going forward. They’re playing a United team who are one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League at the moment but struggle to create chances at the other end.”
A vital post-Arsenal stock take for Mourinho’s Spurs
Jose Mourinho’s tactical approach in the 2-1 defeat to Arsenal was extremely disappointing. As we highlighted in the Treble last week, this was a chance for Mourinho to build on the new attacking foundations triggered by Gareth Bale’s form; to reinvent himself as a progressive manager; to cast aside the negativity that has threatened his job; and to lay down a marker in the race for the top four.
Instead, he reverted to type: a timid defensive set-up that sapped all the confidence out of the players and reignited the fury of the Spurs fan base. Arsenal, so error prone when pressed high up the pitch, were there for the taking but Mourinho just couldn’t do it. It felt like final, final confirmation he really isn’t going to change.
Consequently Tottenham’s trip to Villa Park on Saturday has become hugely significant. Hostility towards the manager builds, and after the players were forced to move from bold attacking to nervous defending last weekend it remains to be seen whether they can snap back again. This is a hinge moment: should Villa make Spurs look flat then all of the momentum built over the last month will evaporate and, quite rightly, blame will be laid squarely at the feet of the man who wasn’t bold enough to play on the front foot against Arsenal.
The bad news for Mourinho is that Villa will most likely blunt the Tottenham attack, playing in a hunched formation that reduces the visitors to low-tempo football that will only further anger the fans. Villa’s record against the bigger clubs is strong, and assuming Jack Grealish is back for Sunday’s game, Mourinho may be about to fail an important test.
From Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast: “Any team would miss Jack Grealish. If he plays then I want Villa on side. I’m not sold on Spurs who were disappointing in the north London derby last weekend.”
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