Every week we preview three fascinating things to look out for in the big Premier League games – including Man Utd v Liverpool – with further analysis from Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast.
Chance for Everton to make Champions League challenge concrete
Everton have a chance to move up into sixth on Saturday night, at least until Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool play later in the weekend. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have largely been left out of the conversation for a top-four finish this season, and that’s entirely because they always seem to have one or two games in hand. The league table has been lying to us; Spurs and West Ham have played an extra match and Everton’s game in hand is at home to rock-bottom Sheffield United.
Aston Villa should be an easy hurdle to jump. Dean Smith hasn’t managed to get Villa firing since Jack Grealish’s injury, with even the likes of John McGinn and Ollie Watkins notably slowing down as creativity drains out of the team. There just isn’t enough quality in the final third for Villa to turn possession into meaningful chances, and after winning ten points from their last ten games, their excellent season threatens to turn into a distinctly average one.
By contrast, Everton ended a five-game winless run at Arsenal last Friday, providing a confidence boost at just the right moment to build some late momentum. Villa are pretty passive, easy to play through and easy to keep out of the penalty area. Richarlison can build on his good performance at the Emirates and secure three crucial points for the Toffees.
Back Everton to win at 19/20 (Betfair)
A pendulum swing in Klopp’s and Solskjaer’s seasons
This is a surprisingly important derby considering it seems almost certain that Man Utd will finish in the top four and Liverpool will not. For the hosts, who face the most important summer window since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s arrival, it is vital they have a strong end to the season to confirm the view they have made good progress in 2020/21.
Should United lose to Liverpool then Leicester City have a chance to finish runners-up by beating United in May. The distraction of the Europa League semi-finals makes dropped points in both of these fixtures plausible, in turn leading to a tame end to the season and a repeat of last year’s third-place showing – not to mention only a mildly improved points tally. If that was to happen, then questions would re-emerge about just how much the club ought to be investing in Solskjaer.
These are pretty big ‘ifs’, mind. Liverpool are more likely to lose on Sunday, which would not only end their faint hopes of Champions League football next season but potentially leave them in eighth by the end of the weekend – behind rivals Everton. Jurgen Klopp has already begun to unravel a little bit in his interviews, angrily suggesting his players did not deserve top four after their 1-1 draw with Newcastle, and therefore defeat in the derby could trigger further decline.
On the flip side, victory at Old Trafford would do wonders for their confidence ahead of a relatively easy run-in. Whichever way you look at it, this is a crucial game for both teams.
United might have lost some of their attacking fluency in recent weeks but Solskjaer’s defensive shape remains solid, and given that he prefers a conservative approach to ‘Big Six’ matches it is easy to imagine the hosts calmly holding this stuttering Liverpool team at arms’ length. Klopp’s continued problems in defence and midfield – note how easily Newcastle countered through the middle last time out – suggest Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood can find joy.
From Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast: “It’s a surprise that Liverpool are favourites but I think it’s because United are in the Europa League semi-finals on Thursday while Liverpool are rested and trying to finish in the top four. I think United have enough in reserve though. Liverpool are giving up so many good chances – where players are expected to score – Liverpool have conceded eight in their last four matches. I have no desire to get Liverpool on side.”
Back Man Utd to win at 17/10 (Betfair)
West Ham must find a way to play without Antonio and Rice
With Everton breathing down their necks and Chelsea doing a remarkable job of balancing their Premier League and Champions League commitments, West Ham really cannot afford to lose any further ground on Monday night. Back-to-back league defeats is disappointing; three in a row would be damning.
There is no getting around it. West Ham just aren’t as solid and coherent without Declan Rice holding down the middle, and they aren’t as cutting on the counter without Michail Antonio leading the line. If they are to finish in the top four then David Moyes need to adapt his tactics, finding a way to get the likes of Pablo Fornals, Said Benrahma and Manuel Lanzini back into the fold and creating chances together.
That means less reliance on set-pieces and a greater focus on possession football, and fortunately a visit to Turf Moor offers the opportunity to do so. There is little value in playing a direct or muscular game at Burney, which gives West Ham the chance to tweak their system and play a more expansive, playmaker-centric style of football.
Back West Ham to win at 23/20 (Betfair)
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