Every week we preview three fascinating things to look out for in the big Premier League games – and this weekend is a doozy with Chelsea, Leicester and Liverpool battling for two places – with further analysis from Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast.
Grealish is the neutrals’ best chance of a top-four upset
Liverpool should easily sweep Crystal Palace aside and, judging by the manner of Tottenham’s defeat against Aston Villa in midweek, they will lose the top-four battle at Leicester City, which means the final-day drama might be anything but – unless Villa, or more specifically Jack Grealish, can pull something out of the bag.
Chelsea are obvious favourites. Marvelous Nakamba looked sloppy in possession at Spurs, and with Dean Smith keen to play expansive football with plenty of ball-recycling at the back, Villa are more prone to getting caught on the ball than most. In short, Chelsea are excellent in the transition under Thomas Tuchel while Villa are highly vulnerable. It is easy to envisage N’Golo Kante and Mason Mount crashing into the Villa midfield and setting Timo Werner in behind.
Then again, if Villa are happy to sit back a bit and play patiently then Chelsea can be got at. Jack Grealish was excellent at Spurs, and he will be directly attacking the weakest area of the Chelsea team. Tuchel, unsure of how to solidify that side, has taken to swapping Cesar Azpilicueta and Reece James into their least natural positions. If Grealish is up for it in front of a bloodthirsty Villa crowd then neutrals might get the final twist they crave.
Back double chance Villa/draw at 13/8 (Betfair)
A Leicester win is the best result for everyone
Leicester should be able to out-think and out-move a Tottenham XI that lacks structure at the moment. That is not meant as a criticism of Ryan Mason, who has done a very good job steadying the ship after all the turmoil at the club in recent weeks but who obviously hasn’t got the experience yet to coach the side in detail. He is sensibly deploying a Pochettino-style attacking system and bringing back fan favourites, but it is such a sharp turn away from Jose Mourinho that the players look a little shell-shocked.
This is most notable in central midfield, where Spurs are passive and unable to take control, and in fact it is here that Mason should take some of the blame; his refusal to play Tanguy Ndombele has contributed to a problem that seems certain to lead to defeat at Leicester on the final day. Youri Tielemans, Wilfried Ndidi and James Maddison should make short work of Spurs – which is good news for both teams.
Tottenham face a difficult summer and a tricky transitional year in 2021/22. The last thing they need is a gruelling Thursday-Sunday schedule in Europe’s new third-tier competition the Europa Conference League, which would see Tottenham travel to the furthest corners of the continent just to thump minnows in a tournament they don’t actually care about. Far better to leave that sort of thing to Everton and use those clear midweeks in 2021/22 to do some serious work on the training ground.
From Betfair’s Football…Only Bettor podcast: “Leicester are out to 3.45 for a top four finish and I think winning the FA Cup final win may have blown them of course in the league. They looked physically and emotionally fatigued at Chelsea in midweek. But I expect Leicester to come out firing against Spurs. The Foxes will have the greater motivation and I fancy them to get the job done.”
Back Leicester to win at 19/20 (Betfair)
When do we start to reassess Arteta’s season?
Arsenal have won 24 points from their last 12 Premier League matches. They are third in the table for games played since Christmas Day (23 in total). Mikel Arteta is potentially just one win away from taking Arsenal to a seventh-place finish which, considering Leicester City’s rise towards a ‘Big Seven’, is par for the course. In fact, take out a dreadful few games in the Europa League and Arsenal have been steadily improving for quite some time.
Yes, the performances still look weirdly directionless: at times too individualistic, at others too system-heavy, and always unnecessarily passive or sideways. But teams with tactical geeks in charge often look completely broken until every component part is in working order, and tend to suddenly click once they have their squad in place and their teachings drilled into muscle memory.
Arteta has barely managed Arsenal outside of a pandemic and his only summer at the club was one hugely disrupted by Covid-19. Give him a proper summer to coach the players – and to clear out the deadwood – and he may yet prove to be a good Arsenal manager.
Just don’t rely on this Sunday’s game to make up your mind. These two open, attacking, and maddeningly chaotic sides are primed to play out a classic end-of-season thriller, with goals galore and an essentially random score line.
Back over 2.5 goals at 15/8 (Betfair)
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