Throw those flatcaps in the air, twang those braces and pass the beard oil – it’s victory for the hipster xG nerds. Brentford are a Premier League football team.
They’ve avoided ‘La Decima’; broke their jinx to win the play-offs at the tenth time of asking. They won it in 20 devastating minutes.
Freddie Woodman was a little slow off his line, there could have been better communication between him and Ben Cabango and the hole between Cabango and fellow centre-back Marc Guehi perhaps should have been smaller. But really, the moment to win the penalty was all about Brentford’s link-up.
Bryan Mbeumo makes it possible, latching on to the ball seemingly from nowhere to be brought down, but it was a quite incredible pass from Sergi Canos. In cricket you’re told to imagine a dinner plate on which to pitch the ball; from 15 yards or so away that requires quite the skill level.
Canos passed that ball from over 30 yards on to a dinner plate. It was perfectly weighted and directed. A bit to the right or left and it gets cut out, too light and it gets cut out, too heavy and rolls through to Woodman. Ivan Toney dispatched the penalty – his eleventh from eleven this season – with a confidence that was flowing throughout the team.
They were all over Swansea. Toney very nearly scored one of the great play-off final goals, chesting the ball down on the edge of the box and smashing a dipping volley off the underside of the crossbar. That came soon after another outstanding team move that doubled their lead.
Mbuemo was waiting for it. With the ball being battled for in his own box, he was edging towards halfway. By the time the ball was cleared in his direction, his edging had created a two on two. He waited well for Mads Roerslev, who waited brilliantly for Emiliano Marcondes, who came on to the ball in the box and caressed it into the corner. Stunning.
These are fruits of the ‘Moneyball’ system; a win for the hipster xG nerds at Brentford HQ. £6million Mbuemo was bought to replace £20million Neal Maupay, £5million Toney came in for £35million Ollie Watkins, Roerslev and Emiliano cost nothing or close to nothing and that pass alone from Canos was worth the £2million outlay. Considering it was half a play-off final win, it was actually worth £85million, says this pr*ck who swore he wouldn’t reference ‘THE RICHEST GAME IN FOOTBALL’.
𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗: 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱’𝘀 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘅𝗚 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁
◎ The ‘moneyball’ model
◎ The company behind the stats
◎ The data-driven philosophy(1/12) pic.twitter.com/JMFh8NYjSI
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) May 28, 2021
Those Premier League focussed supporters tuning in – and there will have been plenty – could be forgiven for thinking that this was a win for the little guy: good old Brentford getting one over mighty Swansea.
But while the majority of relegated teams do spend big in the first season or two to bounce right back to the promised land, Swansea have spent just £8.7million in three Championship seasons; Brentford have spent nearly five times as much in that time. For all the credit Brentford get and deserve for their ability to buy low and sell far higher, in the last three seasons Swansea’s net spend is -£86.42million to Brentford’s -£80.43million. For the Swans to be in the play-off final is – in many ways – more remarkable than Brentford winning it.
Andre Ayew aside – who cost them £20million in their last season in the Premier League – and the total spent on the team is less than £10million, with half of it made up of smart loans and youth products. They didn’t deserve to win, but Steve Cooper did superbly to get them so close.
But it was Brentford’s day – finally. This was a win for the statisticians, but the real joy, of course, belongs to those fans, who have enjoyed the football their team have played for so long with the rest of us, but have been left alone to endure the hardships that always followed. Until now. Congratulations, Brentford.
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