Man City v Tottenham in the Carabao Cup final pits a brilliant tactician against an absolute newcomer. Let’s ask the questions…
1) Can Mason build on debut with more confident performance?
Ryan Mason hasn’t had any time to change things tactically at Tottenham, which explains why their first-half performance against Southampton was so reminiscent of the Jose Mourinho era: they looked nervous, holding a low defensive line and failing to apply pressure to the ball.
Things were actually made worse, initially, by the fact Mason wanted to play ‘brave and aggressive’ football, because with the forwards chasing the ball down and the defenders dropping the pitch was hopelessly long. Southampton easily countered through the middle, taking advantage of huge open spaces through midfield thanks to the stretched shape of the Tottenham XI.
Credit to Mason for managing to re-compress the lines for the second half. Spurs’ defensive line was notably higher (Mason could be seen gesticulating wildly for his players to push up) and a tiring Southampton were pinned back into a narrow blockade, eventually making it easy for Spurs to attack down the left – leading to both of their goals.
It might take a while to shake off the Mourinho vibe, but if they start as badly on Sunday, Spurs will be torn apart.
2) Is Mourinho’s low block a preferable approach?
But playing with more confidence, compression between the lines, and assertiveness in the tackle does not mean Spurs have to push up like they did in the second half against Southampton. Mourinho’s usual low block for these sorts of games worked well in a 2-0 win over Man City early in the season, so Mason needs to find a way to harness the players’ tactical muscle memory of his predecessor without this leading to passivity on and off the ball.
There is little to be gained from attempting to match Manchester City at the moment, such is their ability to suffocate, and therefore Mason is better off accepting his team will lose the territorial battle. The trick is avoiding the backs-to-the-wall approach that Aston Villa displayed on Wednesday, holding the line and engaging City as soon as they enter the Spurs half.
3) Will Bale and Son cause problems for Pep’s rotating full-backs?
One of the biggest unknowns heading into this game is the configuration of Man City’s full-backs, which rotates with every game and tends to define Pep Guardiola’s formation. Having swapped the same two in and out in recent games, the most likely combination is Joao Cancelo and Benjamin Mendy – but Guardiola may wish to ensure Kyle Walker is in the team to deal with Spurs’ pace on the flanks.
Assuming Spurs get their defensive line and level of engagement correct, then their main threat will be counter-attacks balanced down both flanks; Gareth Bale played well in midweek and should start on the opposite side to Heung-Min Son. Guardiola may choose to position Cancelo in central midfield – to provide extra protection against Harry Kane as he drops into the number ten space – and Walker as part of a back three.
Walker and Aymeric Laporte will be able to match Son and Bale for pace, but nevertheless it will be a fascinating battle.
4) Can Guardiola repeat the 3-0 with a fluid front five?
The most recent game between the sides ended in a comfortable 3-0 win for Manchester City characterised by an unusual front five shape from the hosts. When in possession, Gabriel Jesus and Ilkay Gundogan essentially operated as a strike partnership with Bernardo Silva sitting just behind them as Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden held the width.
This gave City a huge numerical advantage in the final third as the wingers pulled Mourinho’s defence wide before Gundogan, making runs beyond the centre-backs, poked holes in an error-prone back line. Spurs simply could not cope with the number of bodies, and given how sloppily they started against Southampton on Wednesday, we could well see a repeat of this tactic.
Certainly Guardiola will be aware that overloading the final third with City attackers is the best way to hurt a fragile Tottenham team.
5) How does Aurier cope with Foden?
This problem may play out most starkly in the battle between Serge Aurier and Phil Foden. Aurier started against Southampton and played well, suggesting Mason may be reinstating the Ivorian and trusting him with the right-back slot for the foreseeable future. Considering how often he makes mistakes – rashly pulling himself out of position – this would be good news for Man City.
Foden is unplayable at the moment. His strength in the dribble and ludicrous ball control ripped Villa apart, leading to right-back Matty Cash getting himself sent off 57 minutes into a whirlwind game for him. Foden will pop up all over the left side of the pitch to drag Aurier about and force him into mistakes; it is the one glaring mismatch at Wembley.
Of course, Mason may avoid this problem by picking Japhet Tanganga instead. It is just too early in the new manager’s tenure to predict his line-up or tactics with any real confidence, but no matter his selection stopping Foden is pretty much impossible.
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