England head into their penultimate international break before the European Championships with a lot of questions that still need answering…
Poor form against top opposition
Since 2019, England have rarely faced A-list opposition. Out of their last 18 games, only five have come against nations who are in the top 15 of FIFA’s world rankings. Quite worryingly, Gareth Southgate’s men have been rather disappointing in four of those five encounters.
Back in the summer of 2019, England took the Netherlands to extra-time in their UEFA Nations League semi-final but ultimately lost 3-1.
Over a year later, the Three Lions played out a dull 0-0 draw with Denmark in Copenhagen.
A month after that, England managed an impressive 2-1 win over Belgium but followed it up with a 1-0 loss to the Danes at Wembley – their first loss at home since June 2018.
Last November, Southgate’s men suffered another defeat – a 2-0 loss at the hands of Belgium.
Despite all the hype surrounding future talents and wins over low-level opposition, there is a clear cause for concern ahead of the rearranged European Championships.
Looking at the current squad, only half of the 26 players competed in this season’s Champions League. Nineteen members of that squad have never won a major trophy with their domestic clubs.
But perhaps the biggest sticking block is Southgate’s formation…
Three at the back vs four at the back
Southgate came under heavy criticism over his formation in the 2-0 defeat to Belgium during November’s international break.
England opted for three men at the back, two wing-backs, two defensive midfielders, two attacking midfielders and one Harry Kane up front.
While the Three Lions dominated possession, they only managed two shots on goal. Creativity was nowhere to be found – with the exception of Jack Grealish – and the England boss was hammered for holding back England’s attacking capabilities with his defensive tactics.
With the likes of Kane, Marcus Rashford, Raheem Sterling, Mason Mount, Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho and Phil Foden at his disposal, it’s hard to deny that Southgate has the tools to turn England into a fearsome attacking side.
However, to fully deploy his offensive potential, many are calling Southgate to bin his three-at-the-back formation and start games with more attacking intent.
That doesn’t seem likely as, after the defeat to Belgium, Southgate already said he would be sticking with the current plan as he seeks to bring about stability ahead of the European Championships.
Perhaps his issue is one of trust – that being in his centre-backs. The big question is, if England played with four at the back, who would be part of that centre-back pairing?
Harry Maguire, John Stones, Eric Dier, Tyrone Mings and Conor Coady are the men who could fill that position in the latest squad announced by Southgate. Kyle Walker slots into a system with three.
Interestingly, the last time England played with four at the back, Coady and Joe Gomez were the pairing as England thrashed Wales 3-0 in October.
But it’s worth noting that Southgate also used the 4-3-3 formation in an earlier game with Denmark and that certainly didn’t go to plan as the Three Lions drew 0-0 in Copenhagen and only produced a single shot on target.
There are a lot of questions that still need answering ahead of the Euros – but the next three games are unlikely to provide many answers.
Betting: Harry Kane to be England’s top scorer at Euro 2020 at 6/5 (PaddyPower)
Only Poland can provide a serious test
Upcoming games with San Marino and Albania should be nothing more than formalities. Whichever formation England decide to go with, anything short of a comfortable victory would undoubtedly sound alarm bells. The real test, however, should come against Poland at Wembley.
There were concerns that Robert Lewandowski, Krzysztof Piatek and Arkadiusz Milik wouldn’t be able to take part due to coronavirus protocols. However, after an intervention from the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, and their football federation boss, Zbigniew Boniek, it has now been confirmed that Poland’s star trio will be coming to London.
Betting: Poland to score a goal against England at 4/6 (PaddyPower)
Clearly, the main threat will be the one brought by Lewandowski. Poland regularly play with one man up front in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Having lost just four of their last 19 games, this system has done them a lot of good. But not enough to avoid a change in management. After two straight defeats to Italy and the Netherlands – and a rift between the manager and star-man Lewandowski – the Polish federation decided to sack Jerzy Brzeczek.
Former Leicester City, Swansea City and QPR boss Paulo Sousa has taken over and will take charge for the first time against Hungary.
Whether he sticks to the current formation is yet to be known, but the fact that Lewandowski will be coming to Wembley will give the Poles ammunition to really threaten England’s defence.
Betting: England to win against Poland and both teams to score at 13/5 (PaddyPower)
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