Olympics Football Preview – Who wins in the land of the Rising Sun? – originally posted on Sportslens.com
Olympics football always has a chunk of uncertainty due to FIFA empowering clubs to decide on releasing their top players. Hence this tournament can be a great leveller where traditional heavyweights can end up with weak contingents. There is also a glorious history of sowing the seeds for future champions who seize the opportunity & burst into global reckoning.
A quick refresher on Olympics 2020 men’s football tournament schedule: Kickoff is on 21st July & the final is played at Tokyo on 7th August 2021. There are four groups of four teams & two teams per group advance to battle out in the knockout stage.
| Group | Teams |
| Group A | France, Japan, Mexico, South Africa |
| Group B | Honduras, New Zealand, Romania, South Korea |
| Group C | Argentina, Australia, Egypt, Spain |
| Group D | Brazil, Germany, Ivory Coast, Saudi Arabia |
Suggested Article: Olympics Football 2020 Men’s Schedule
Below is my analysis & predictions on eight key teams based on the tournament draw & player roosters.
- Japan: Group A; Prediction – Bronze Medal
As the single coach, Hajime Moriyasu has been intelligently blending the senior & U23 squad. 15 players have represented the national team including a strong showing in Copa America 19. Their three overage players have World Cup 2018 experience & led by Center back Mayo Yoshida, a senior team captain with 100+caps & a decade of EPL/ Serie A experience. This foundational experience can be well leveraged by the new era of talented youngsters like:
- Takefuso Kubo – the creative & diminutive Real Madrid player who has been on loan with Villareal & now Getafe.
- Takehiro Tomiyasu – Bologna Center Back being seriously scouted by Tottenham
- Ritsu Doan – PSV creative right-winger who is doing well at Bundesliga on loan.
With a well-oiled team, smart squad selection & crucial home advantage, it can be an “Its Coming Home” moment for Japan. They badly want to erase out the agony of recent misses as losing finalists at AFC 2019 to Qatar & both EAFF E1 2019 /Asian Games to South Korea
2. Mexico: Group A; Prediction – Quarterfinal
In spite of being the 2012 Olympics gold winners & muscled by the arrival of Guillermo Ochoa as overage keeper, Mexico is expected to have a limited run with their local LigaMX squad. With the CONCACAF Gold Cup started in July 2021, they are not being able to leverage their senior national squad.
3. France: Group A: Prediction – Group stage
Coach Sylvian Ripoll potentially could have lined up the strongest youth squad at Olympics. But forget Mbappe, none of France’s talented youth stars like Kounde, Camavinga, Upamecano, Meslier, Diaby, Aourar, Kamara, Guendouzi will be catching the flight to Tokyo. Club pre-season priorities have taken front seat & only two players from the recent U21 UEFA 2021 squad make the cut. They are left to the Mexican import duo of ageing warhorse Andre-Pierre Gignac & mercurial Florin Thauvin for some inspiration. On paper, this team can end up being an early casualty like their illustrious seniors at Euro 2021.
4. South Korea: Group B: Prediction – Semi-Final
Coach Kim Hak-Bum will be expecting to cruise through Group B as winners. They will also be fueled by the task of winning at the backyard of their biggest footballing rivals.
They caused an early ripple by deciding to exclude their global face ie Spur’s Hueng-min Son in order to preserve him for the upcoming season. Nevertheless, the team is well balanced with a core of 15 players from the U23 AFC 2020 winning squad. This includes tournament’s MVP (midfielder Won Du Jae) & best Goalkeeper (Song Bum Kuen). For defensive solidity, South Korea has reinstated overage Kim Min Jae who was adjudged in Team of Tournament at AFC 2019 & best defender at EAFF E1 2019.
But the key standout players will be:
- Ligue1’s Bordeaux striker Hwang Ui Jo who was also the top scorer in Asian Games 2018
- FIFA U20 2019 Golden Ball winner Lee Kang In, an attacking midfielder in LaLiga with Valencia.
They are expected to run into one of Brazil/Argentina in the semifinals.
5. Spain: Group C: Prediction – Gold Medal
Undoubtedly Spain arrives at Tokyo with the strongest squad. They have reversed the tide of club non-commitment to Olympics with the timely intervention of Spanish FA. Apart from Euro 2021 players in Unai Simon, Eric Garcia, Pau Torres, Pedri, Olmo & Oyarzabal, coach Luis De La Fluente has ensured the selection of 18 players who were the core of the U21 UEFA 2019 (winners) & 2021 team that he managed. His overage player selections with top European stars Ceballos & Merino brings flair to midfield. At 25 & moving ahead of his long injury layoff, Real Madrid’s Marco Asensio can end up being the nucleus of this dream team. The rich bench strength gives Spain a competitive advantage to grind through the Group of Death & continue the momentum in knockout stages.
What can stop Spain from their second Olympic win is their age hold profligacy in front of goal & how recharged the team is after a long season including the Euro campaign.
6. Argentina; Group C: Prediction – Quarterfinal
Argentina had a forgettable Rio 2016 group stage exit while being plagued by a cash strapped football association leading to last-minute exodus of coaches & staff. They have been on a redemption path & winners at PreOlympic CONEMBOL 2020 & Pan American 2019 Games. Coach Fernando Batista’s confidence in youth is so high that Argentina has picked only one overage player in La Liga goalkeeper Jeremias Ledesma from Cadiz. They have a well settled CB pair in Nuehen Perez (Atletico Madrid) & Facundo Medina (RC Lens). Atlanta United’s winger Ezequiel Barco & Brighton’s Alexis Macclister as the ‘enganche’ will help launch their big centre forward Adolfo Gaich who is on the cusp of a breakout tournament. They do miss some genuine talent in Julian Alvarez, Marcos Senesi, Leonardo Balerdi, Santiago Ascacibar & Matias Zaracho. Local giants Boca Juniors & River Plate are conspicuous by their zero-involvement due to Copa Libertadores priorities.
In this context Batista has done well to secure arguably the two most exciting young local talents:
- Velez’s raw diamond & attacking midfielder Thiago Almada
- Lanus’s right-winger Pedro De La Vega.
This midfield cast is expected to dazzle with their fluidic movements & incisive passing range.
I would love to see my favourite team emulate their senior’s triumph at Copa America 2021 & bag the third Olympic title post-2004 & 2008. Average full-backs, a tough draw including Spain & Egypt in group & a potential quarterfinal clash with archrivals Brazil can though halt this expedition.
7. Brazil: Group D: Prediction – Silver Medal
The defending Olympics champions walk into Tokyo with a front-loaded squad like Rio 2016. Richarlison after the Copa jolt will be the fulcrum of their offense. Surprisingly it is Bundesliga that supplies majority of Brazil’s attack potion with Hertha’s Mattheus Cunha, Leverkusen’s Paulinho & Dortmund’s Reinier. Ajax’s Antony has dazzled with his pace & trickery in Eredivise this season while Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli finally looks injury-free. A low-profile name for Brazilian standards, coach Andre Jardine will probably not miss upfront options like Rodrygo, Pedrinho, Malcolm, David Neres. Midfield is well balanced with Aston Villa’s Douglas Luiz who had a quiet Copa America & Gremio’s holding midfielder Matheus Henrique who will be eyeing a Europe move like his peer Lyon’s Bruno Guimaraes. Jardine has smartly used his overage quota with:
- Evergreen 38yr captain Dani Alves who is poised for the perfect swansong after also leading Brazil to a Copa America win in 2019.
- Diego Carlos who had an eventful Europa triumph in 2020 with Sevilla will be a sure starter as CB.
- The GK selection of veteran Santos from local club Athletico Paranaense also brings needed ‘goliero’ solidity.
Incredibly Brazil has only one Olympics title till now & will not be in any mood to let it go so quickly. Some cracker matchups including Germany in group stage & mostly Argentina in Quarterfinals will add spice to this campaign.
8. Germany: Group D: Prediction – Quarterfinal
Germany will aim to climb one step ahead on their Rio 2016 silver medal. Youth coach Stefan Kuntz’s lads are the reigning U21 UEFA European Championship winner & it is an enviable 2 trophies & 1 finalist record in the last 5 years. On team selection, they have mixed success in securing 13 players from the 2021 & 2019 U21 UEFA championship teams while there is no representation from Bundesliga big boys like Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund. Rio 2016 helped propel Serge Gnabry to senior NT & key interesting talent this time to watch include midfielders Niklas Dorsch & Arne Maier as both were named in the Team of Tournament for U21 UEFA 2021 championship. While their overage player selection is not spectacular, Union Berlin’s 33yr striker Max Kruse’s anchor play brings decent efficiency in the final third. They are anticipated to run into Spain in the quarterfinals.
Suggested Article: Olympic Men’s Football 2020 – All Squads.
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Author:amitmenon